THURSDAY,  DECEMBER 4,  2008

THE THREAT

Posted at 8:10 p.m. ET

News of this report came out a few days ago, but I haven't seen any great expressions of interest.  But this new report warns of major security threats to the United States that are likely to erupt during the Obama years.

President-elect Barack Obama will probably confront a biological or nuclear attack at home or abroad if the U.S. and its allies do not act decisively to prevent it, according to a report released this week by a panel created by Congress.

The report found that the U.S. had taken important steps to counteract nuclear proliferation and, to a lesser extent, biological terrorism, but had "not kept pace with growing risks."

If you don't keep up, you haven't done anything, the power of these weapons being what they are.

"We have been losing ground, and we are less secure today than we have been in the recent past," said former Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.), the commission chairman.

One of the problems, of course, is that reports like this have been issued in the past.  Since we haven't experienced nuclear or biological terrorism, the reports are often seen as "crying wolf," yet the warnings make great sense.

"There should be someone in the White House who wakes up every day, looks in the mirror and says, 'What do we need to do today to reduce the possibility of a weapon of mass destruction going off someplace in the world, specifically someplace in the United States?' " Graham said.

Graham said the person could play an important role in highlighting nonproliferation issues when the administration considered agreements such as the recent deal permitting U.S. sales of nuclear fuel and technology to India.

Not a bad idea.  But I don't want a "defense intellectual" in that role.  I want someone with paranoid tendencies.  They get it right.

But some specialists, and some officials in the Bush administration, cautioned against appointing too many advisors.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff urged caution Wednesday, saying that the government risked creating too many extraneous layers of bureaucracy by creating "a czar to do this and a czar to do that."

"I put a big yellow light on, [a] go-slow, in terms of reorganizations," Chertoff said.

By the time the bureacracy responds and gets organized, Washington could be turned into a parking lot. 

I suspect the news media will ignore this report after a day or two, and we'll go right back to September 10th, 2001.  I have no idea what it will take to wake us up before it's too late.

December 4, 2008.      Permalink            

DOW BOWS - AT 3:49 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 245, to 8345.  Guess the "investors" didn't like that photo of the auto execs driving their slow-selling vehicles to Washington.

ANOTHER IAF - AT 3:16 P.M. ET:  From The Times of India:   NEW DELHI: With intelligence inputs holding terrorists could strike through the aerial route after the maritime one, the IAF has cranked up air defence measures to thwart any copycat strike of the al-Qaida's 9/11 strikes.

"This is based on a warning which has been received...We are prepared as usual,'' said Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major on Thursday, a day after defence minister A K Antony reviewed the "preparedness to deal with any terror strike from the air'' with the top military brass here.

COMMENT:  A new world.  IAF has, for decades, meant Israel Air Force in news stories.  Now we must add India Air Force.  However, I'm a bit skeptical about Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major's comment that this IAF is "prepared, as usual."  "Prepared" wasn't the word in Mumbai last week.  India may need some outside help on this.  Calling the other IAF.

BELLY UP?  OR IS IT CHASSIS UP? - AT 2:35 P.M. ET:   Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC executives are considering accepting a pre-arranged bankruptcy as the last-resort price of getting a multibillion-dollar government bailout, said a person familiar with their internal discussions.

Auto executives have warned bankruptcy would lead to liquidation as customers abandoned the companies. Staff for three members of Congress have asked restructuring experts if a pre- arranged bankruptcy -- negotiated with workers, creditors and lenders -- could be used to reorganize the industry without liquidation, a person familiar with that matter said.

COMMENT:  Problem is, the companies' first response was probably accurate.  Customers will abandon a bankrupt car company, fearing their trade-in value will plummet and service might become unavailable.  Would you buy a Buick if you didn't know whether Buick will be around in three years?   

END OF RALLY? - 2:23 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 24, at 8567.  Not much fizz left, apparently.

THE REAL HEROES

Posted at 7:20 a.m. ET

The distinguished foreign-affairs analyst, Michael Ledeen, has a son in the Marine Corps, and takes an active interest in the military.  We need regular reminding of the sacrifices our uniformed services make for us.  Here, Ledeen quotes Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who will be kept on by President-elect Obama.  The secretary spoke of one wounded warrior:

Or Lieutenant Jason Redman. He is a SEAL – part of the Navy's elite Special Ops team – who took rounds from a machine-gun in his face and arm in Iraq last year. Jason posted a bright orange sign on the door of his hospital room at Bethesda National Naval Medical Center. It read: "Attention to all who enter here. If you are coming into this room with sorrow or to feel sorry for my wounds, go elsewhere. The wounds I received I got in a job I love, doing it for people I love, supporting the freedom of a country I deeply love. I am incredibly tough and will make a full recovery. What is full? That is the absolute utmost physically my body has the ability to recover. Then I will push that about 20 percent further through sheer mental tenacity. This room you are about to enter is a room of fun, optimism, and intense rapid regrowth. If you are not prepared for that, go elsewhere."

When we think of those in American society who regularly present themselves as victims, we should also think of men like Lieutenant Redman.  One Jason Redman makes up for a thousand professional victims.  During the holiday season, we must especially remember those who bear the battle.

December 4, 2008.      Permalink           

THE PEACEMAKERS - AT 7:14 A.M. ET:   GAZA — For the first time since the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, no Palestinians from Gaza are making the sacred annual pilgrimage to Mecca this year because of a power struggle over which Palestinian government is legitimate.

COMMENT:  But, of course, we want to give them a state as soon as possible.  Who would run it?  The survivors of the civil war?

OUR MUMBAI?

Posted at 7:08 a.m. ET

The Mumbai attacks, well executed and precisely planned, have raised questions all week as to whether we're vulnerable to a similar onslaught.  David Ignatius of the Washington Post explores the issue:

Like the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in America, the Mumbai terrorist assault last week began with a hijacking. Islamic militants seized a private fishing boat at sea rather than commercial jetliners, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials. But the attackers displayed the same deadly ability to coordinate a complex operation against multiple targets as did their predecessors on Sept. 11.

And...

The attack was meticulously planned: The raiders dispersed to several targets across the crowded city that had been studied by advance reconnaissance teams. They maintained communications silence on the way in, U.S. officials believe. And most important, they carried with them enough guns, ammunition and supplies for a long battle inside India's largest city.

The question:

For Americans watching the carnage, the obvious question was: Could it happen here? U.S. officials say the answer, unfortunately, is yes. And then comes a second question: If America is hit with another Sept. 11-style terrorist assault, how should the country react?

How vulnerable are we?

The Department of Homeland Security has been worried for more than a year about the danger of seaborne attacks. With an estimated 17 million small vessels plying the thousands of miles of U.S. coastline, the vulnerability is obvious...

...Technology is improving for detecting radiological devices that might arrive at seaports. But defenses are thin against bioterrorism and are almost nonexistent against seaborne attackers of the sort who terrorized Mumbai.

Gives the term "a day at the beach" an entirely new meaning.

What would happen if roving gunmen infiltrated U.S. cities and started shooting? Most U.S. police departments aren't well prepared to deal with such "active shooters," as they're called. Police are trained to cordon off an area that's under attack and then call in a paramilitary SWAT team to root out the gunmen.

Finally...

"Mumbai is a worst-case 'active shooter' problem," says a former CIA officer who helped organize a DHS pilot program on the subject last summer for police chiefs. "It had multiple shooters, multiple locations, mobile threats, willingness to fight the first responders and follow-on SWAT/commando units, well-equipped and well-trained operatives, and a willingness to die. Police department commanders in America should be scratching their heads and praying."

Of course, if we had a responsibly armed citizenry, trained to respond and work with the police, that itself could be a powerful deterrent.  But we don't, and won't, except in a few areas of the country.  It just isn't something the sophisticated classes do, my darlings.

December 4, 2008.      Permalink          

A GIFT TO TV VIEWERS - AT 6:38 A.M. ET - From The Politico:  Chris Matthews is dead serious about running for the Senate in Pennsylvania - and shopping for a house in the state and privately discussing quitting MSNBC as proof of his intense interest, according to NBC colleagues, political operatives, and friends.

COMMENT:  A relief to audiences and those allergic to high, grunting sounds.  Run Chris run.

WEDNESDAY,  DECEMBER 3,  2008

RENEE

Posted at 8:06 p.m. ET:

Well, regular readers know who "Renee" is.  She is Renee Nielsen, pictured below, our terrific contact in Mumbai, who's been sending us her remarkable reports and insights.  Here is another dispatch, filed today:

- Today, starting at 4 p.m., thousands gathered down at the Gateway of India to march against terrorism. It has been a peaceful protest, but you can see from the live interviews (complete with cursing) that the citizens of Mumbai are very angry with politicians here. Many are calling for the businesspeople/actors (i.e. the ones with money who pay the most taxes and have influence) to put pressure on the politicians to make swift changes and increase security for the city.

Some are calling for the politicians to have minimum educational qualifications plus 10 years of public service before being allowed to run. People here feel the politicians are uneducated, and are corrupt because of it. Some want the age limit to be 60 to get new and younger faces into power. One man even ranted on how the US under President Bush protected his country from terror attacks after 9/11, so why can't India stop these attacks the way the US can?

- Sec of State Rice held a joint conference with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee in Delhi earlier this evening. The part that jumped out to the media on their endless "Breaking News banners" was this statement: "What has to happen is there has to be a real sense of transparency, real sense of action and real sense of urgency because these are extremists who have the same intention and same goal, and that is to terrorize and send messages to states around the world."

Headlines are reading: "Rice tells Pak to Act Fast."

The consensus has not been to dismiss Rice, as she and Bush are leaving, but more that Obama will continue this policy. I did not hear anyone dismissing Rice as a lame duck.

- The rhetoric between Indian and Pakistan is starting to heat up, especially after Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, on Larry King Live last night, questioned if the one terrorist captured was even Pakistani.

- Zardari also waffled his way past a question about India's demand for handing over 20 terrorists living in Pakistan, saying he was "definitely going to look into all the possibility of any proof that is given to us.

"At the moment these are just names of individuals. No proof, no investigation, nothing has been brought to forward," he said. Some of the names in the Indian list, notably Dawood Ibrahim, are Indian nationals convicted in Indian courts. Ibrahim lives in the same neighborhood in Karachi (Clifton) where Zardari has a home, according to past reports in the Pakistani media.

Asked if he would turn over the fugitives (including Indian nationals) if India provided the proof, Zardari fudged again, just like his predecessor, saying, "If we had the proof, we would try them in our courts, we would try them in our land and we would sentence them." Accounts in the Pakistani media reveal many of the fugitives and outlaws live under ISI protection and patronage.

The interview appeared to have been taped before Indian and U.S officials confirmed the Pakistani plot, based on the confession of the captured terrorist and electronic evidence.   None of the news programs are providing their audience with this major piece of information to provide context. People are outraged over Zardari's comments.

- I've just spent the last 2 hours watching Times Now and Headline News, with their guests panels representing both India and Pakistani perspectives.

The general theme from India: Even the US is putting pressure on you, give up the 20 terrorists on the list! One anchor on Headline News asked Indian Former Army CHief VP Malik: "Do we have proof so soon in the investigation these really are Pakistanis?"  The response: "Everyone knows about it. The terrorists came from Pakistan."

The Pakistani position on all these shows has not differed from President Zardari.  Khalid Rahmaan, from the Institute of Policy Studies in Pakistan, complained:

"India is pointing fingers."

"Are the terrorists really Pakistani?"

"The goverment of Pakistan is saying that India is putting pressure on instead of trying to genuinely investigate."

- The Indian government has stated that military action is NOT off the table.

- At Chhatrapati Shivaji Rail Terminus today, two bags containing eight kg of explosive material were discovered.  This created more outrage by the populace about the competence of the politicians and police - to have missed something so deadly. People have been using the station for days now. Last night another bomb was found outside the Taj.  That also had been missed.

- Pakistani news channels are saying that Hindu Zionists were responsible for the attacks:

- All in all, it's a big mess of accusations and denials between India and Pakistan, played through the media.  The media is not helping, as it sensationalizes every piece of information coming out.

Tensions are high.

Another great report from Renee, filled with stuff we generally don't get here from the mainstream press.

December 3, 2008.      Permalink          

5:46 P.M. ET:  The Dow closed up 171, to 8592, continuing its rally.

AHEM.  A FUNNY THING HAPPENED TO ME ON THE WAY TO PERFECTION TODAY - I MADE A MISTAKE - 5:21 P.M. ET:  I asked in our 2:46 p.m. post for readers to name any commerce secretary who'd gone on to higher office, assuming there hadn't been any.  Well, reader Fred Hill gently reminds me that a fellow named Herbert Hoover was commerce secretary, then became president.  So, I guess miracles happen.  I stand corrected. 

YES, VIRGINIA, IRAN HAS A BUDGET, TOO - AT 4:18 P.M. ET:  From AP:  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted Wednesday as saying that Iran will be forced to trim spending and generous subsidies and raise taxes. It's a sensitive admission for the Iranian president, who is seeking re-election in June.  Oil prices have plunged from $147 a barrel in July to under $50, adding to the pain of Iran's rising inflation and unemployment.

COMMENT:  Of course, the revered president could eliminate the nuclear-weapons program.  That could save some big bucks.  He could also cut off the merit awards to terror groups around the world.  And, someone please tell him that raising taxes in a recession is not a good idea.  Wait.  Don't tell him.

NOT ENOUGH - AT 3:28 P.M. ET:  Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC, struggling for support in Congress for aid, won money-saving union agreements to delay contributions to medical funds and suspend a program that pays laid-off workers.

COMMENT:  Good start, but they've got to convince Americans to buy their cars. And that means better cars, zero defects, good designs.  They should address that problem directly, and before Congress. 

RICHARDSON TO COMMERCE - AT 2:46 P.M. ET:  From The Washington Post:  CHICAGO, Dec. 3 -- President-elect Barack Obama announced his choice Wednesday of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson to be commerce secretary, saying his one-time rival for the Democratic presidential nomination will be "a key strategist" on economic and other issues confronting the new administration.

COMMENT:  Okay, key strategist or not, it still looks like a consolation prize to the Hispanic community, of which Richardson is a part.  Name the current commerce secretary.  Name any commerce secretary who's ever gone on to higher office?  Maybe there a few, but I can't think of any offhand.  Richardson is a governor (New Mexico).  It's hard to see why he'd give up a governor's chair for a second-level cabinet job.

OUR HEARTS BREAK - AT 2:37 P.M. ET:  From The New York Times:  In a sign of the economic times, Harvard has sent a letter to its deans saying that the university’s $36.9 billion endowment fund lost 22 percent of its value in the last four months and could decline as much as 30 percent by the end of the fiscal year on June 30.  Normally Harvard reports on the endowment’s performance once a year, but the letter signed by the university’s president, Drew Faust, and its executive vice president, Edward C. Forst, cited the “current extraordinary circumstances” as the rationale for providing an interim report.

COMMENT:  We have a note at SNIPPETS about a trend that will make college unaffordable for most Americans.  The above story about Harvard ran in the Business section of The Times, not the Education section.  Isn't it time we started demanding that colleges cut down on their profligacy, especially whole departments dedicated, not to scholarship, but to grievance-group interests?  Universities have become sacred cows.  They are neither sacred nor cows.  They receive sizable amounts of federal aid, and now is the time for oversight panels in Congress to ask tough questions about where the money goes.

DIPPING DOW - AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  The Dow is down 140, right after the opening.

THE TERRORISTS ARE WINNING

Posted at 8:45 a.m. ET

This is a good follow-up to our report on Andrew McCarthy, below. 

Steve Emerson, one of the American pioneers in the fight against terrorism, and a man who's taken major abuse because of his work, weighs in on where we stand in the battle.  He's not very encouraged by the behavior of the politically correct battalions who are active in American life: 

Watching and reading the last 5 days of reports of the Mumbai attacks was an Alice in Wonderland experience. Even after an Islamic terrorist group took credit, TV anchors and reporters assiduously avoided the term Islamic terrorist. They must have consulted with the Thesaurus for the Politically Correct to determine that the word "gunmen" would not offend any jihadist.

Oh, I don't know, Steve.  Do we really want to use "gunmen," and associate Islamic terrorists with the National Rifle Association?  Maybe we should say, "armed partisans"?

On Wednesday, even though everyone knew by then that the perpetrators were jihadists, CNN constantly referred to the terrorists as "extremists"—with no modifier. Hell, they could have been the Basque ETA or the ultra right wing U.S. militia. Then a CNN anchor asked his guest with totally innocence, "Now why would an extremist group target a Jewish house of worship?" Because, my dear politically correct anchor, it was an Islamist terrorist group.

Fairly typical for a CNN anchor.  They're very intellectual, you know.

The most that government officials, in cahoots with mainstream media, could utter were names like Al Qaeda (AQ) or Laskar-e-Taiba (LeT) as potential suspects. Yet even here, the discussions were mindless. One talking head said it could not be AQ since AQ behavior is to have massive simultaneous explosions (as if Al Qaeda follows a pre-programmed script).

Emerson nails it.  We've all heard reporters say that such and such an attack bears the "fingerprints" of a particular group, or doesn't, as if that group can never change its tactics.

Last year, the Departments of State and Homeland Security issued an internal memorandum that henceforth no one could use the term "Islamic terrorists" and could only use the generic term "militant" or "extremist." Even President Bush, who once invoked the term "Islamofacism," now refuses to use the term Islamic terrorist. In Canada, the author Mark Steyn was the subject of three human rights complaints and subsequent trials for calling radical Muslims terrorists and other such "slurs." He won all three tribunals.

You'll notice how the changes made the Islamists love us.  Ask the people of Mumbai.

But Emerson points out that hope is coming, not from our State Department or from The New York Times, but from courageous Muslim journalists:

Aijaz Zaka Syed, a Muslim columnist who wrote a column for Sunday's Khaleej Times Online:\

"It's all very well for us to say Islam has nothing to do with extremism and terrorism. We can go on deluding ourselves these psychopaths do not represent us..."

"The great religion that preaches and celebrates universal brotherhood, equality of men and peace and justice for all has been hijacked by a demented, miniscule minority. And, as my friend says, only Muslims can solve this problem. Only Muslims can confront these anarchists in their midst..."

"Only they can get their faith freed from the clutches of extremism. This is no time to hide. It's time to stand up and speak out. For the terrorists will continue to speak on our behalf, until we do not speak up. This is no time for silence. Enough is enough!"

Indeed, enough is enough. It is time to start listening to folks like Mr Syed or the courageous Zuhdi Jasser, rather than cave in to the PC crowd.

But those Muslim journalists are a small number compared to the PC legions:

It all comes together. After more than 7 years since 9/11, we can now issue a verdict: Islamic terrorists have won our hearts and minds. Let's thank those who made it happen: the U.S. government, European governments and the mainstream media...

...The Mumbai massacre was a heavily planned plot carried out by Islamic terrorists. Period. Memo to Obama: Until the onus of responsibility is put on Islamic "civil rights" groups that want to ban free speech and claim that anyone who uses the term Islamic terrorist is a racist, there is no hope of winning the battle.

Well said, well said, well said.  Steve Emerson would have cheered last night's briefing by Andrew McCarthy, reported below.  Both men are heroes.

December 3, 2008.      Permalink          

THE GOOD McCARTHYISM

Posted at 7:51 a.m. ET

Andrew C. McCarthy spoke at Hudson New York last night.  That is the New York branch of the Hudson Institute. 

Many of you know Andrew McCarthy from his work at National Review.  He was a major federal prosecutor who led the prosecution of Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman (the blind sheikh) and others for terrorism against the United States.  That terrorism included the bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993. 

Let me just review the points Mr. McCarthy made, because I think they're important, especially as a new administration takes office:

McCarthy is contemptuous of defining terrorism as a criminal-justice problem.  His best quote of the night:  "Want to know if the criminal-justice system is effective against terrorism?  Ask Osama bin Laden."

Other points:

- There is no such thing as "Islam."  It is not monolithic.  It has no worldwide hierarchy.

- Radical Islam does not distinguish between Democrats and Republicans in the United States.  It sees only Americans, so will not see the incoming administration as very different from the last.

- You can't treat a national-security problem as a legal problem.  The threat is too large and the legalities too undecided.

- One of our problems is how we define the enemy.  For example, if a radical Islamist suddenly decides to work through politics, he's immediately labeled a "moderate," even though he is nothing of the kind.

- Hatred of George W. Bush has blinded some people to the serious threat of terrorism.  Many did not want to give the government the power that it needs to suppress terrorism simply because they didn't want Bush to have this power. 

- For a time, during the Clinton years, the criminal-justice system was essentially the entire war on terror.  Clearly, it didn't work.

- The Guantanamo situation has been twisted entirely out of shape.  We've gone from 800 detainees at Guantanamo to 250 today.

- Much of the information the United States has about terrorists we apprehend is reliable and true, but does not meet the standards of evidence of American courts.

- The new president must decide, if he closes Guantanamo, what to do with the dangerous prisoners who are there.  That is the key question, and it hasn't been addressed.  Eighty percent of the prisoners probably cannot be tried in courts because of evidence problems.

- The "civil-liberties community" believes that only it is capable of learning.

- The concern over federal inspection of library records as a result of the Patriot Act is a red herring.  It was actually easier before the Act for the feds to look into library records when there was probable cause.

- We worry far too much about our "reputation" abroad.  McCarthy asks, "Reputation in the eyes of whom?"  He cites the image of someone in a radical Muslim country coming home from the weekly beheadings and saying, "Boy, that Guantanamo Bay really affects me."

- So-called "civil libertarians" should be more realistic about our situation.  If we have another terrorist attack, McCarthy said, today's legal procedures will look like a day at the beach.

- Our current ethic seems to be, "Let's try to win and make them like us."  Not adequate.

It was a great briefing, and I highly commend Andrew McCarthy's book, "Willful Blindness - A Memoir of the Jihad."  You can conveniently order it by clicking on our Amazon.com link at the top of our right-hand column.

McCarthy brings us back to reality.  We hope the new president is listening.

December 3, 2008.      Permalink